PREDICTION MARKETS · LIVE EVENT CONTRACT PRICES FROM KALSHI FED CUT MAY 2026: 72% US RECESSION 2026: 58% FED CHAIR WARSH CONFIRMED: 78% NYSE CIRCUIT BREAKER: 9% PREDICTION MARKETS · LIVE EVENT CONTRACT PRICES FROM KALSHI FED CUT MAY 2026: 72% US RECESSION 2026: 58% FED CHAIR WARSH CONFIRMED: 78% NYSE CIRCUIT BREAKER: 9%

Live

Kalshi Event Contracts

Live Prediction Markets

Real-time event contract prices from Kalshi tracking Fed policy, recession risk, and key regulatory milestones. Prices update continuously during market hours.

Section 01 — Live Event Contracts

Live Kalshi Markets

Implied probability from live Kalshi event contracts. Prices update on page load. Click any card to trade on Kalshi.

Crypto Regulatory Structure · Kalshi

Crypto Market Structure Bill Passes in 2026

— YES probability

Volume—

Expires—

NYSE Circuit Breaker · Kalshi

NYSE Market-Wide Circuit Breaker Triggered in 2027

— YES probability

Volume—

Expires—

SEC Quarterly Agenda · Kalshi

SEC Passes Major Rulemaking This Quarter

— YES probability

Volume—

Expires—

Fed Rate Path 2026

Fed Rate Cut Probabilities — Remaining FOMC Meetings

Implied probability of a 25bp rate cut at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting. Sourced from Kalshi event markets.

Probability of 25bp Cut at Each Meeting

Source: Kalshi FOMC event markets | Current fed funds rate: 4.25–4.50% | Hover bars for details

Probabilities sourced from Kalshi FOMC event markets. Reflects market-implied probability of a 25bp cut at each meeting.

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Economic Calendar

Upcoming Economic Events

Key macro data releases and FOMC meetings with Kalshi-implied outcome probabilities where available.

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Section 03 — Research

Prediction Markets Research & Analysis

Explore our deep-dive on prediction market structure, state litigation maps, regulatory risk, and how event contracts are priced in the market data ecosystem.

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