Prediction Markets Intelligence — Kalshi · Polymarket · CFTC

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Breaking Regulatory Tracker

Platform	Regulatory Status	Key Development	Risk Level
Kalshi CFTC Registered DCM	CFTC DCM	Arizona criminal charges filed — Kalshi calls them "paper thin." NY AG cease-and-desist on sports contracts. Massachusetts Superior Court preliminary injunction issued January 2026. Washington AG filed March 27, 2026.	HIGH
Polymarket CFTC Approved July 2025	CFTC Approved	Self-certified new market rules March 2026. US site not yet fully operational. Offshore site still offers Iran and Venezuela markets. Hit $425M single-day trading volume on February 28, 2026.	HIGH
Robinhood CFTC Registered	CFTC Registered	Joined Coalition for Prediction Markets. State enforcement exposure growing as regulatory landscape evolves. Monitoring state-by-state restrictions on sports event contracts.	MEDIUM
Coinbase CFTC Positioning	Positioning	Nevada preliminary injunction issued March 26, 2026. Filing preemptive federal lawsuits to establish federal preemption of state gaming laws. Product launch delayed pending resolution.	HIGH
Interactive Brokers CFTC Registered	CFTC Registered	Geographic restrictions in place based on evolving state regulations. Monitoring CFTC ANPRM outcomes before expanding event contract offerings.	LOW

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CFTC Rulemaking Timeline

January 29, 2026

SEC/CFTC Joint Project Crypto Summit

CFTC Chair Selig announces four-part regulatory agenda for prediction markets at joint summit with SEC. Framework to address manipulation, insider trading, government official trading restrictions, and contract self-certification standards.

February 25, 2026

CFTC Enforcement Advisory Issued

CFTC issues formal enforcement advisory clarifying full enforcement authority over CFTC-registered designated contract markets. Kalshi reports two insider trading cases referred to enforcement. CFTC confirms ability to bring manipulation charges against prediction market participants.

March 12, 2026

CFTC Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

CFTC issues ANPRM on event contract regulation. Guidance Advisory 26-08 simultaneously issued to all DCMs establishing standards for manipulation resistance in binary contract markets. Comment period opened for sports contracts, insider trading rules, and restrictions on trading by government officials.

March 23, 2026

5c(c) Capital Fund Launched

New venture fund backed by Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, Marc Andreessen, and Ribbit Capital. Named after CFTC section governing event contracts. Fund targets prediction market infrastructure and adjacent fintech investments.

March 26, 2026

Coinbase Nevada Preliminary Injunction

Nevada court issues preliminary injunction against Coinbase prediction market product. Coinbase immediately files preemptive federal lawsuit asserting CFTC registration preempts state gaming law. Case expected to be a bellwether for federal vs. state jurisdiction.

March 27, 2026

Washington AG Files Against Kalshi

Washington State Attorney General files action against Kalshi over sports event contracts. Sixth state to take formal action. Kalshi argues federal preemption under CFTC registration. Case joins existing proceedings in New York, Massachusetts, Arizona, and Nevada.

Comment Period Open Active Now

CFTC Seeking Public Comment on ANPRM

CFTC accepting public comment on: sports event contract standards; insider trading rules for event contracts; restrictions on trading by government officials and their immediate families; and manipulation resistance standards for DCM rule self-certification.

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Market Data Infrastructure Implications

Feed Infrastructure

Exchange-Grade Data Requirements Emerging

Prediction markets generate real-time binary contract price data with increasing velocity. As platforms scale to billions in daily volume — Polymarket hit $425M in a single day on February 28, 2026 — feed infrastructure requirements are approaching those of traditional exchanges. Firms building on these platforms need low-latency data feeds, historical data archives, normalized order book data, and surveillance capabilities equivalent to regulated equities venues.

Market Data Costs

Free API Access Won't Last

Unlike traditional exchanges, Kalshi and Polymarket currently offer free REST and WebSocket API access to real-time and historical data. This pricing model will not persist as platforms mature, seek revenue diversification, and face the infrastructure costs of serving institutional clients. Market data professionals should document current data consumption patterns now — before fee schedules are introduced. Early API integrations may be grandfathered; late adopters will pay institutional rates.

Compliance Implications

DCM Obligations Apply in Full

CFTC-registered DCMs are required to maintain complete audit trails, conduct ongoing market surveillance, and enforce rules against manipulation and insider trading. Firms trading on prediction markets face the same reporting obligations as traditional derivatives markets, including position reporting and large trader notification thresholds. Under proposed CFTC rules, CAT reporting requirements may extend to event contracts. Compliance teams should treat prediction market activity as equivalent to futures trading for internal policy purposes.

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State Litigation Map

Jurisdiction	Action	Current Status
New York	Attorney General cease-and-desist order on sports event contracts. Kalshi contests federal preemption under CFTC registration as DCM.	Active Kalshi challenging in federal court
Massachusetts	Suffolk County Superior Court preliminary injunction. Court ruled sports event contracts subject to Massachusetts state gaming law regardless of federal DCM registration.	Active January 2026 ruling against Kalshi — appeal pending
Arizona	First criminal charges filed against Kalshi for illegal gambling and election wagering under Arizona state law. Kalshi calls charges "paper thin" and without merit.	Active Kalshi denies wrongdoing — criminal proceeding
Nevada	State court issued preliminary injunction against Coinbase prediction market product. Coinbase immediately filed preemptive federal lawsuit asserting CFTC preemption.	Injunction Issued March 26, 2026 — federal preemption case pending
Washington	State Attorney General filed action against Kalshi over sports event contracts. Sixth state to take formal regulatory or legal action against a CFTC-registered prediction market platform.	Active Filed March 27, 2026
Federal — DOJ	Federal prosecutors exploring whether prediction market bets on company-specific events could constitute insider trading under existing federal securities law. No charges filed yet.	Investigation Ongoing — jurisdiction question unresolved